Editorial

When Success is Not Success

Some political commentators say that Tony Abbott is one of the most successful opposition leaders in Australian history or perhaps the most successful opposition leader in recent times, but even a cursory analysis shows this is far from fact. Here are four reasons why.

A successful opposition leader is one who actually wins the prime ministership, and Abbott hasn't done that yet. Winning from opposition is so hard that only three politicians have accomplished it in the past 30 years - Kevin Rudd in 2007, John Howard in 1996, and Bob Hawke way back in 1983.

Without any doubt these are Australia's most successful opposition leaders in recent history.

The prize is at the end of the race. There are no prizes for being another starter, no matter how fancied, and at this stage that's all Abbott is.

The second reason is that a successful opposition leader could reasonably be expected to have won the support of a good chunk of the voters, to be liked and popular.

In opposition Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd were much liked and became the most popular prime ministers in opinion poll history. Even the less charismatic John Howard was respected in opposition by a wide cross section of Australia, and went on to become a long serving prime minister much liked by many.

Not so Abbott. Poll after poll shows he is one of the most consistently unpopular opposition leaders since polls began. For example, in December last year The Age/Nielsen Poll said he scored the second lowest approval rating ever and the second highest disapproval rating ever. Only Andrew Peacock had a higher disapproval rating - and that was in 1984. In whose language is that success?

The third reason is that a successful opposition leader is likely to have at least a few signature policies that have widespread support.

Kevin Rudd did it in opposition with his very popular plans for an Emissions Trading Scheme and Apology to the Stolen Generation. Bob Hawke did with his consensus politics; John Howard with his ‘Howard Battlers'.

In contrast, Abbott is notable for his lack of signature policies, or even policies at all. One exception is his paid parental leave scheme, but this is widely criticized, even inside his own party.

Abbott is best known for his slogans - Stop the Boats, which is not a policy; Repeal the Carbon Tax, which is not a policy but the end of a policy; and End the Waste, also not a policy.

Unlike Hawke, Howard and Rudd, there is no positive Abbott agenda the electorate is keenly awaiting.

And this brings us to the fourth reason that talk of Abbott's success as opposition leader is more propaganda than fact. A prime minister in waiting could reasonably be expected to get the big decisions, the big calls, right. To see "the big picture", as former prime minister Paul Keating put it; the "vision thing" as the first president George Bush put it.

But Abbott's record on arguably the biggest picture issue in the world - carbon pollution and climate change - is poor if not wrong; and he is reported to have said that climate change is "absolute crap", a claim that goes against every credible scientific institution in the world.

But even if it there were credible doubts about climate change, a more cautious approach would better befit a would-be prime minister who could have the welfare of the nation, if not the world, in his care. Because being wrong on this issue has lethal consequences.

Plenty of experts say climate change is happening now, and adversely affecting Australians.

The Bureau of Meteorology said the summer of 2012-13 saw a severe heatwave that affected 70 per cent of Australia and set new temperature records in every state and territory; the hottest month on record for Australia; and all-time high maximum temperatures at 44 weather stations including Sydney, Hobart and Newcastle. Oh, and there are also extreme floods, droughts, bushfires and rising sea levels.

NASA and northern hemisphere Bureaus of Meteorology have also recorded recent extreme weather records, and the science journals say both the Arctic Ice Cap and Western Antarctica are melting faster than normal.

Yet Abbott is against a price on carbon, and his Direct Action policy to lower emissions is widely discredited. Major economic and infrastructure loss though extreme weather events and deaths through extreme heat and cold are not the sort of big picture issues an opposition leader should get wrong.

But Abbott has. The fact he has not been held to account says much about media concentration and his cheer squad among radio's ‘shock jocks' and the Murdoch media.

So why is Tony Abbott widely expected to become prime minister? A global financial crisis, Malcolm Turnbull as a novice opposition leader, prime minister Rudd blinking on his Emissions Trading Scheme, a Julia Gillard opportunistic swoop on the prime ministership, and a still unpopular Gillard are luck, not skill. Abbott's main skill has been relentless opportunistic negativity, so much so that it became counterproductive.

Luck is good, but it can change on a dime. When it does, a successful opposition leader will have policies, vision and charisma to fall back on.

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